ThisTracks the Market
Week of September 26, 2026 · updated September 26, 2026
→ This week's reading is steady compared to last week.
This is a gauge, not a crystal ball. It reflects where economic stress indicators sit today — it does not predict what markets will do next.
Currently: 2.80
High-yield credit spread got worse this week (risk score +16), now at a risk reading of 24/100. When this widens, it gets more expensive for businesses and households to borrow — a leading sign that lenders are getting nervous.
Currently: 0.79
Investment-grade spread got worse this week (risk score +10), now at a risk reading of 23/100. When this widens, it gets more expensive for businesses and households to borrow — a leading sign that lenders are getting nervous.
Currently: 0.36
10y–2y yield curve eased this week (risk score -10), now at a risk reading of 66/100. The bond market's read on where the economy is headed; when short-term rates rise above long-term ones, recessions have historically followed.