ThisTracks

The Economic Watch Desk

ThisTracks the Market

Should I Be Worried?

Week of September 26, 2026 · updated September 26, 2026

44 Normal

→ This week's reading is steady compared to last week.

This is a gauge, not a crystal ball. It reflects where economic stress indicators sit today — it does not predict what markets will do next.

What moved this week

High-yield credit spread

Currently: 2.80

High-yield credit spread got worse this week (risk score +16), now at a risk reading of 24/100. When this widens, it gets more expensive for businesses and households to borrow — a leading sign that lenders are getting nervous.

Investment-grade spread

Currently: 0.79

Investment-grade spread got worse this week (risk score +10), now at a risk reading of 23/100. When this widens, it gets more expensive for businesses and households to borrow — a leading sign that lenders are getting nervous.

10y–2y yield curve

Currently: 0.36

10y–2y yield curve eased this week (risk score -10), now at a risk reading of 66/100. The bond market's read on where the economy is headed; when short-term rates rise above long-term ones, recessions have historically followed.

What to do about it